Possible global shortage of wheat supply

Widespread fertilizer shortages, supply chain issues, grain shortages and record droughts are all contributing to the global food crisis, leaving the world with around 10 weeks of wheat left, the company says. agricultural analysis Gro Intelligence

“We currently only have 10 weeks of global consumption in store around the world. Conditions today are worse than in 2007 and 2008,” said Sara Menker, CEO of agricultural analytics firm Gro Intelligence.

“The Russian-Ukrainian war did not cause a food security crisis, but merely added fuel to a long-burning fire.

“It’s not cyclical, it’s seismic. Even if the war were to end tomorrow, our food security problem won’t go away anytime soon without concerted action,” Menker added.

Russia and Ukraine together account for almost a third of world wheat exports.

Last year, Ukraine produced about 33 million tons of wheat, of which 20 million tons were exported. This year, the country has the potential to produce only about 21 million tonnes of wheat, 23% less than the average of the previous five years.

Ukraine has already taken steps to ban exports of grain and many other food products, in an effort to preserve its own food supply.

Official government estimates put global wheat stocks at 33% of annual consumption, but stocks may have fallen to 20%, according to agricultural data firm Gro Intelligence.

The war has disrupted agricultural production in the region and pushed world food prices to a record high.

World wheat prices jumped 20% in March, due to the direct impact of war on wheat production, as well as higher fertilizer prices and weather factors.

Carlos Mera, an analyst at Rabobank, said prices would remain high as the world’s major producers were unlikely to be able to increase production significantly, due to high fertilizer prices and pressure to cultivate. other crops where prices are also rising.

The wheat crisis has been made worse by India, the world’s second largest producer, banning grain exports and high costs for farmers of fertilizer, feed and fuel.

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